Reversion to the Mean

In some ways, the race for the White House has returned to where it stood before President Joe Biden’s catastrophic debate performance in late June.Just a couple of weeks ago, the Trump campaign could not only boast of leads in every key battleground state, but they were also making inroads into deep blue states like Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia.Today, however, the map looks like it has returned to its “normal size,” as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who were lukewarm or cold to Biden come home to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Aug 2, 2024 - 02:00
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Reversion to the Mean
In some ways, the race for the White House has returned to where it stood before President Joe Biden’s catastrophic debate performance in late June.Just a couple of weeks ago, the Trump campaign could not only boast of leads in every key battleground state, but they were also making inroads into deep blue states like Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia.Today, however, the map looks like it has returned to its “normal size,” as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who were lukewarm or cold to Biden come home to Vice President Kamala Harris.

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