
Many assessments of the reasons for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have emphasized Vladimir Putin’s individual characteristics, such as his early career as a KGB officer, imperial ambitions towards Ukraine, or belief in Ukraine’s cultural affinity to Russia. This article argues that the invasion can be better explained by offensive geopolitical rationality. Putin got a few things about the war in Ukraine wrong; however, from a geopolitical standpoint, he also got a few things right. These include the limits of the West’s support for Ukraine, the willingness of other non-Western countries to cooperate with Russia, and the limited impact of Western sanctions on Russia. In turn, this makes Russia difficult for the West to handle but also encourages the development of a more nuanced and potentially effective response that takes geopolitics into consideration.